|
KMID : 0974620010190010123
|
|
Bulletin of Dongnam Health University
2001 Volume.19 No. 1 p.123 ~ p.135
|
|
|
A Time Series Analysis for the Monthly Variation of Particulater Carbon in the Atmosphere
|
|
Hwang Kyung-Chul
Yeo Hyun-Gu
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
Total Carbon(TC) of ambient air in Seoul has been studied over monthly average concentration using ARIMA model from 1991 to 1995. As result of time series analysis of TC, mean and distribution was not constant with time. In seasonal difference(D=1), PACF was decreased exponentially. It was inferred that seasonal ARIMA model was ARMA(0.1)_12. The final time series model using ARIMA was (1-B^12)×TC_t=(1-0.7489B^12)a_i, TC_t=TC_t + 1.1323 that showed concentration of present TC was effected concentration of TC of 12 month ago and unexplainable a_.?? As a result of estimation of monthly data of TC using final model in 1996, correlation coefficient was 0.73 which conformed high prediction for short-term prediction within one year.
|
|
|
KEYWORD
|
|
|
|
|
|
FullTexts / Linksout information
|
|
|
|
|
|
Listed journal information
|
|
|
|